Ben DiGiacomo

Injuries May Affect Niners & Chiefs in Upcoming Matches

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Lamar Jackson turned back to his legs last weekend against the Texans where he rushed 11 times for 100 yards on the dot and poured in two touchdowns to go with it. Up against the Chiefs this weekend, they allowed the fourth most rushing attempts to opposing quarterbacks in the regular season, and last week against the Bills, Josh Allen rushed 12 times for 72 yards and two touchdowns. Getting the league’s best runner at the quarterback position at +105 in this spot feels like a must-bet.

Lamar Jackson (+105)

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After weeks of a dip in production, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce got back to their old ways as Kelce caught two touchdowns. I’m expecting to see Kelce in a ton of motion on Saturday to avoid having him being covered by one of the Ravens’ sensational linebackers, so treating him like more of a wide receiver. I expect Mahomes to rely on him often with this likely to be a nail-biter of a game. At +115, I like the price I’m getting.

Travis Kelce (+115)

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Hear me out. After Lamar Jackson, no one stands out as a touchdown bet for the Ravens. Gus Edwards and Justice Hill split carries with Jackson being the primary red zone option on the ground, and obviously, none of the Ravens’ wide receivers stand out. I’m going to opt to take a chance here with Mark Andrews, who potentially could be activated off of IR to play his first game in over two months. Before his injury, Andrews found the endzone six times in ten games, and across five career playoff games, Andrews has averaged a touch over eight targets per game. If we get that volume, getting +260 will look silly knowing his upside.

Mark Andrews (+260)

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Nothing about what the 49ers’ defense did last week against Jordan Love necessarily impressed me, so I’m not worried about Jared Goff and this Lions’ offense not being able to move the ball. As a result, we’re getting some awesome value with some of the guys we’ve been riding the coattails of all season. Amon-Ra St. Brown is normally even-money, but we’re getting +135 here after he combined for 23 targets over the Lions’ two playoff games. I’d be shocked if he didn’t have a ten-target outing on Sunday, so getting +135 value feels like a slam dunk.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (+135)

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I’m struggling to find value with the 49ers’ touchdown props. I certainly don’t want any part of Christian McCaffrey at -300, or him to score two touchdowns at +170 knowing how strong the Lions’ defense is against the run. Through the air, we don’t know the status of Deebo Samuel yet, but I don’t want Brandon Aiyuk at -115 or George Kittle at +110 since their prices are too juiced in my opinion. Assuming Deebo doesn’t go or plays a limited role, getting Jauan Jennings at +340 is easily the best value on the board. Jennings saw six targets last week after Deebo went down while Aiyuk and Kittle only had six and seven targets, respectively. The Lions’ secondary is a liability, so I expect them to put the best they have to offer on Aiyuk and Kittle, leaving Jennings with a potential big matchup advantage. At +340, this is certainly worth a sprinkle.

Jauan Jennings (+340)

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David Montgomery has been one of our favorite anytime touchdown bets of the season, so there is no reason for us to go away from here especially considering we are getting +170 value. He has a touchdown in 14 of 17 games season where he played the full game, and I’m not worried about the 49ers’ run defense anyway because we know Ben Johnson won’t shy away from handing him the ball inside the five. At +170, let’s ride.

David Montgomery (+170)

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Who doesn't love an anytime touchdown bet? We're eyeing up these six players, in particular, to score as the final four teams look to make the Super Bowl.

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