Astros or Rangers: Will Either Texas Team Make the MLB Playoffs?
Sportsgrid-Staff
The Verdict
According to FanGraphs, the outlook is grim for these recent World Series winners making the playoffs again. FanGraphs’ playoff odds give the Astros a 34.8% chance of reaching the postseason, while the Rangers are at a dismal 10.7%. Before the season began, the Astros had an 85.9% chance and the Rangers a 37.9% chance.
Despite these numbers, if one team from the Lone Star State is likely to make the playoffs, the Rangers seem the safer bet. They will need a remarkable six-week run to achieve this, but with key players returning from the IL and no need to rely on trades to strengthen the roster, Texas appears to be in a better position.
If the Astros acquire additional pitching, they might become the more favorable choice. However, with their current roster setup, the Rangers seem more likely to succeed.
Should the Rangers fail to improve before the trade deadline and perhaps even fall further behind, they are likely to become sellers. The team has several players set to become free agents at the end of the season. If GM Chris Young doesn't see a clear path to the postseason, expect him to start retooling for the future.
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Will Either Texas Team Make the MLB Playoffs?
Both the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros have struggled with injuries and poor performances, while the Seattle Mariners have surged ahead with strong pitching, making the AL West a one-team race for now.
As of Monday, the Astros (38-40) and Rangers (37-40) are trailing the Mariners (45-35) by 6 and 6.5 games, respectively. Additionally, they are 4 and 4.5 games behind the final Wild Card spot. It’s a tough situation, with numerous teams to overtake in the standings if either of the last two World Series champions hopes to make the playoffs this year.
Why the Astros Will Make the Playoffs: Offense
The Astros' lineup is formidable. Early this season, some players experienced struggles, notably Alex Bregman. Currently, Kyle Tucker is on the IL, but there is hope for his swift return.
Once Tucker is back, the top of the order—Jose Altuve, Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, and Bregman—will be among the fiercest in MLB. Offense should not be an issue for this Astros team. These players are not only skilled hitters but also seasoned veterans who have been integral to one of the greatest dynasties in MLB history. They know how to win.
However, the Astros may be nearing the end of their window of opportunity. It’s likely that GM Dana Brown will seek to add another starter or two to strengthen a thin rotation. The farm system isn't particularly strong, so some creativity might be required to make these additions.
Injuries have significantly impacted the Astros' pitching staff this season, leaving minimal depth in the organization. Any additional help will likely need to come via trade. If Houston can get within striking distance before the July 30 trade deadline, expect a couple more pitchers to be brought in to bolster the team.
Why the Rangers Will Make the Playoffs: Pitching
The Rangers have several top pitchers expected to rejoin the club over the next few months. Max Scherzer made his season debut with the Rangers on Saturday at home against the Royals, providing a significant boost. In addition to Scherzer, the Rangers anticipate the return of relief pitcher Josh Sborz, along with starters Cody Bradford, Tyler Mahle, and Jacob deGrom. These additions will strengthen the rotation, the bullpen, or both, as some current starters may move to the bullpen.
Don't forget about Jack Leiter. Although he struggled in his three big league starts earlier this year, he has been dominating for Triple-A Round Rock. Leiter could potentially end up in the bullpen in Arlington later in the season if needed.
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Struggling Rangers Offense Needs Josh Jung
While the additional pitching will benefit the Rangers, their offensive struggles have been the main issue in 2024. Through the first 74 games, the pitching staff has allowed 4.45 runs per game compared to 4.42 in 2023, which is nearly identical. However, the team's offensive output has dropped significantly, averaging only 4.23 runs per game compared to 5.44 last season.
Josh Jung may not be the best position player on the Rangers, but the team performs noticeably better when he is in the lineup. He extends the batting order and serves as a vocal leader despite his young age. Last season, the team had a .598 winning percentage (73-49) when Jung started or played in the game. In contrast, when he missed 40 games due to rest days and a broken thumb, the Rangers' record fell to 17-23, with a .425 winning percentage.
Jung only played in the first four games this season before breaking his wrist/forearm. The Rangers went 3-1 in those games and have struggled with a 31-39 record since his absence.
Unexpected contributor Josh Smith has performed well this season, but there is something about Jung that elevates the team's performance. As a coach’s son, Jung's leadership abilities are likely a product of his upbringing, making a significant impact on the field.
The Verdict
According to FanGraphs, the outlook is grim for these recent World Series winners making the playoffs again. FanGraphs’ playoff odds give the Astros a 34.8% chance of reaching the postseason, while the Rangers are at a dismal 10.7%. Before the season began, the Astros had an 85.9% chance and the Rangers a 37.9% chance.
Despite these numbers, if one team from the Lone Star State is likely to make the playoffs, the Rangers seem the safer bet. They will need a remarkable six-week run to achieve this, but with key players returning from the IL and no need to rely on trades to strengthen the roster, Texas appears to be in a better position.
If the Astros acquire additional pitching, they might become the more favorable choice. However, with their current roster setup, the Rangers seem more likely to succeed.
Should the Rangers fail to improve before the trade deadline and perhaps even fall further behind, they are likely to become sellers. The team has several players set to become free agents at the end of the season. If GM Chris Young doesn't see a clear path to the postseason, expect him to start retooling for the future.
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
Will Either Texas Team Make the MLB Playoffs?
Both the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros have struggled with injuries and poor performances, while the Seattle Mariners have surged ahead with strong pitching, making the AL West a one-team race for now.
As of Monday, the Astros (38-40) and Rangers (37-40) are trailing the Mariners (45-35) by 6 and 6.5 games, respectively. Additionally, they are 4 and 4.5 games behind the final Wild Card spot. It’s a tough situation, with numerous teams to overtake in the standings if either of the last two World Series champions hopes to make the playoffs this year.
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