Orioles vs Nationals MLB Picks | Wednesday MLB Best Bets, April 23

Yesterday looked like a clean sweep in the making—but we closed out the day 1-1 (-0.42 Units).

The Over 8 (-120) in Cubs vs. Dodgers cashed with ease. Eight runs crossed the plate in the first inning alone, and Andy Pages sealed it early with a homer in the second. That was never in doubt. Unfortunately, we missed on the bigger play: Guardians First 5 Innings (-105). They didn’t take the lead until the sixth and ultimately won the game, but not in time for our ticket. Credit to Will Warren—he was lights out, and sometimes you just tip your cap.

Still, we keep grinding. Two player props are on the radar today—one fading an Orioles starter, the other banking on a longer-than-expected outing from a White Sox arm.

2025 Record: 21-14 (+6.60 Units)

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Orioles vs. Nationals – 6:45 PM ET

Pitching Matchup:

• Orioles: Tomoyuki Sugano (3.43 ERA, 1.29 WHIP in 21 IP)

• Nationals: Trevor Williams (5.95 ERA, 1.63 WHIP in 19.2 IP)

This is the day we fade Tomoyuki Sugano—the numbers just don’t add up.

At 35, Sugano came over from NPB last year after posting a sub-2.00 ERA over 156 innings. Respectable, but MLB is a different beast. His current 3.43 ERA is misleading—he doesn’t miss bats (sub-10% K-rate), doesn’t induce elite grounders, and isn’t limiting hard contact. The one thing he does well? Walk suppression (78th percentile). But that alone won’t carry a pitcher in today’s game.

Among qualified arms (20+ IP), only three starters have a K/9 below 4: Antonio Senzatela, Randy Vasquez, and Sugano. The ERA deception ends there—Sugano’s xERA is 6.43 (6th-worst in MLB) and his SIERA sits at 5.30, signaling serious regression is coming.

Why now? He’s fresh off a 7-inning, 2-ER outing against a tough Cleveland lineup. But dig deeper—he gave up nine hard-hit balls (95+ MPH) and only generated nine whiffs. The BABIP gods were generous: six of those hard-hit balls turned into outs. That’s not sustainable.

Even a modest offense like the Nationals is dangerous here. They’ve been unlucky so far (top-half Hard-Hit rate, 103 wRC+, but poor BABIP), and they’ve crushed righties at home. After tagging Dean Kremer yesterday, Washington now owns a 135 wRC+ vs RHP at home, fifth-best in the league.

Projection: 3.0 ER for Sugano

Play: Sugano Over 2.5 ER

True Odds: -150 (Bet to -130)

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Bonus: White Sox Opener Watch

This isn’t an official play because the line vanished within minutes of sharing it on Discord—now sitting at -425, which offers zero value. So while it won’t count in the record, here’s the angle:

I bet Bryse Wilson to go over his outs prop because I expect him to throw three innings—not the 1-2 innings the line implied. If news confirms he’ll work deeper, there’s potential value up to 3.5 strikeouts.

Keep your eyes peeled for any updates. This could be a sneaky late add if the conditions align.

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