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We’re coming off a perfect 4-for-4 hit in yesterday’s parlay article, and we’re keeping the momentum rolling with another well-researched 4-leg NBA parlay. With a mix of team-based and player props, this slate offers a strong +472 payout by capitalizing on key trends, injuries, and matchup advantages.
<h2 style="text-align: center;">Thursday NBA Betting Guide</h2>
4-5 Star Bets: <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/picks">Picks Page</a> | <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/player-props">Props Page</a>
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<h2>Leg 1: Celtics Alternate Spread -8.5 vs 76ers (-220)</h2>
For the first leg of this parlay, I’m taking a safer approach by selecting the <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/depth-chart/boston-celtics-depth-chart">Boston Celtics</a> alternate spread at -8.5 (-220) rather than the standard -14 line. The Celtics are a dominant force in the East, while the injury-riddled <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/depth-chart/philadelphia-76ers-depth-chart">Philadelphia 76ers</a> are in freefall, making this a high-confidence play.
<h4 data-start="413" data-end="436">Pick Breakdown</h4>
-Sixers&#8217; Injury Woes and Disastrous Form
  -Philadelphia will be without <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/players/tyrese-maxey/2876">Tyrese Maxey</a> and <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/players/joel-embiid/2884">Joel Embiid</a>, their two best players.
  &#8211;<a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/players/paul-george/3131">Paul George</a> is questionable after exiting Tuesday’s game against Minnesota with a groin issue.
  -The 76ers have been dreadful in their last 10 games, going 1-9 straight up and 2-8 against the spread (ATS).
-Celtics’ Home Dominance and Recent Form
  -Boston is 31-11 against the Eastern Conference and continues to establish itself as a powerhouse.
  -They are 8-2 in their last 10 games, averaging 115.4 PPG while allowing just 106.3 PPG.
  &#8211;<a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/players/jayson-tatum/3075">Jayson Tatum</a> is leading the way with 26.8 PPG, 8.8 RPG, and 5.8 APG.
  &#8211;<a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/players/derrick-white/3076">Derrick White</a> has been red-hot from deep, averaging 4.6 made threes per game in this stretch.
-Key Statistical Matchups
  -Boston’s Offensive Edge: The Celtics average 117.0 PPG, outpacing Philly’s 108.8 PPG over the last 10 games.
  -76ers Defensive Struggles: Philly has allowed 118.6 PPG in their last 10 games, well above their season average (113.8).
  -Head-to-Head Trends: Boston has won 7 of the last 10 matchups between these teams.
  -Boston’s Shooting Efficiency: The Celtics are shooting 47.5% from the field in their last 10 games, while the Sixers are struggling at 44.9%.
-Injury Considerations
  -The absence of Maxey and Embiid makes this a near-impossible spot for Philadelphia.
  -Boston is mostly healthy and just crushed the <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/depth-chart/portland-trail-blazers-depth-chart" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Portland</a><a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/depth-chart/portland-trail-blazers-depth-chart"> Trail Blazers</a> 128-118 behind <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/players/payton-pritchard/3064">Payton Pritchard</a>’s 43-point explosion last night. Tatum is expected to return after missing the first leg of Boston&#8217;s back-to-back, and <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/players/kristaps-porzingis/3067">Kristaps Porzingis</a> is trending that way also after missing three games with an illness. <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/players/jrue-holiday/3069">Jrue Holiday</a> is questionable after missing the last three games with a right-finger injury.
Why This Bet?
Boston is in elite form, and Philadelphia is missing its stars while spiraling out of control. While the full -14 spread is a reasonable bet, the safer -8.5 alternate line (-220) still provides value while reducing risk. The Celtics should comfortably handle business at TD Garden.
<a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/game/philadelphia-76ers-boston-celtics-scores-odds-picks-props-march-06-2025/a474c507-580b-40f4-ae7b-58938825fd5e">PHI vs BOS Odds &amp; Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today &amp; Injury Updates</a>
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<h2>Leg 2: Jayson Tatum 25+ Points (-186)</h2>
For the second leg, I’m playing it safe with Jayson Tatum 25+ points (-186) instead of taking his 27.5-point prop. Tatum has consistently stepped up against the 76ers this season, and all signs point to another big scoring night.
<h4 data-start="281" data-end="304">Pick Breakdown</h4>
-Tatum’s Dominance Against the Sixers
  -Tatum has thrived against Philadelphia this season, averaging 27.3 PPG while shooting an elite 54% from the field in their three matchups.
  -He put up games of 35 and 32 points against the Sixers this season, both landing within or above our target range.
-Rest Advantage and Recent Form
  -Tatum is at his best with extra rest, averaging 29.5 PPG when playing on three or more days of rest this year.
  -His last game was March 2nd against the <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/depth-chart/denver-nuggets-depth-chart">Denver Nuggets</a>, meaning he enters this contest well-rested.
  -Over his last 10 games, he’s averaging 26.8 PPG while also contributing across the board in rebounds and assists.
-Favorable Matchup
  -Philadelphia ranks 23rd in the league in defensive efficiency against opposing small forwards, making this a prime opportunity for Tatum to exploit.
  -With Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid out, the Sixers will struggle to keep up offensively, allowing Tatum to control the pace.
-Injury Considerations
  -Boston is at near full strength, meaning Tatum won’t have to force shots but should still get his normal volume.
  -The Sixers’ injury woes could lead to a more lopsided game, but Tatum has a track record of scoring well even in blowouts.
<h3 data-start="1554" data-end="1575">Why This Bet?</h3>
Tatum has owned the Sixers all season, and with extra rest, he’s even more dangerous. Rather than betting on him to clear 27.5 points, the safer 25+ points (-186) gives us some cushion while still maintaining strong value.
<h2>Leg 3: Lakers Alternate Spread +3.5 vs Knicks (-225)</h2>
For the third leg, I’m rolling with the <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/depth-chart/los-angeles-lakers-depth-chart">Los Angeles Lakers</a> at +3.5 (-225) instead of their standard -3 spread, giving them more than a one-possession cushion. Los Angeles is riding a seven-game win streak and has been dominant at home, making this alternate line against the <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/depth-chart/new-york-knicks-depth-chart">New York Knicks</a> a safer play.
<h4 data-start="285" data-end="310">Pick Breakdown</h4>
-Lakers’ Home Court Dominance
  -Los Angeles is 24-7 at home this season, one of the strongest home records in the league.
  -The Lakers have won eight of their last 10 games, averaging 113.7 PPG while holding opponents to 106.8 PPG.
-Knicks’ Defensive Concerns
  -New York’s elite defender <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/players/og-anunoby/2810">OG Anunoby</a> may miss this game with a thumb sprain, which could leave them vulnerable defensively.
  -The Knicks have allowed 120.9 PPG over their last 10 games, a significant uptick from their season average.
-Key Statistical Matchups
  -Lakers’ Shooting Efficiency: LA is shooting 48.2% from the field, slightly higher than the 47.5% New York allows.
  -Three-Point Shooting: New York averages 12.6 made threes per game, which is 0.7 less than what the Lakers allow.
  -Close-Game Performance: The Knicks are 6-1 in games decided by four points or less, meaning if this game stays tight, the alternate spread provides security.
-Top Performers and Matchups
  &#8211;<a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/players/lebron-james/2994">LeBron James</a> is averaging 24.9 PPG, 8 RPG, and 8.5 APG, continuing to lead the Lakers in all facets.
  &#8211;<a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/players/austin-reaves/3006">Austin Reaves</a> has stepped up recently, averaging 19.4 PPG over his last 10 games.
  &#8211;<a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/players/jalen-brunson/2809">Jalen Brunson</a> (26.3 PPG) and <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/players/karl-anthony-towns/2969">Karl-Anthony Towns</a> (24.5 PPG, 13.4 RPG) will try to carry New York, but with Anunoby’s potential absence, their defense could take a hit.
<h3 data-start="1771" data-end="1794">Why This Bet?</h3>
The Lakers have been nearly unstoppable at home, and with New York’s recent defensive struggles, this is a great spot to back them. Los Angeles has been in great form, winning eight of their last 10 games while limiting opponents to just 106.8 PPG. The potential absence of OG Anunoby makes the Knicks even more vulnerable defensively, which should allow the Lakers to continue their offensive efficiency. While the full -3 spread is a reasonable play, the safer +3.5 alternate line (-225) provides extra cushion in case of a close game, making it the smarter choice.
<a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/game/new-york-knicks-los-angeles-lakers-scores-odds-picks-props-march-06-2025/ed308d49-3681-40e2-84a5-4eb4003d8980">NYK vs LAL Odds &amp; Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today &amp; Injury Updates</a>
<h2>Leg 4: Luka Doncic Over 3.5 Threes (-130)</h2>
For the final leg of this parlay, I’m backing <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nba/players/luka-doncic/3200">Luka Dončić</a> to hit Over 3.5 threes (-130). Dončić has been playing heavy minutes and is in a great spot to exploit a weak Knicks perimeter defense.
<h4 data-start="251" data-end="276">Pick Breakdown</h4>
-Dončić’s Volume and Recent Play
  -Dončić has played at least 34 minutes in five straight games, ensuring plenty of opportunities to get shots up.
  -He’s averaging 26.6 PPG, 8.3 RPG, and 7.8 APG this season while taking 9.2 three-point attempts per game.
-Success Against the Knicks
  -Luka torched New York for seven threes and 39 points in his lone matchup against them last season.
  -With his deep shooting range and ability to create space, he’s a nightmare for defenses that struggle against elite scorers.
-Knicks’ Weakness Against the Three
  -New York ranks 15th in the NBA in threes allowed per game (13.5), showing they are vulnerable from deep.
  -They are dead last in opponent three-point percentage (37.5%), giving up high-quality looks.
  -If OG Anunoby sits out, the Knicks will be at an even bigger disadvantage, lacking their best perimeter defender.
-Position-Specific Edge for Dončić
  -The Knicks rank 21st in defensive efficiency against point guards and allow them to shoot 44.7% from the field.
  -With Dončić’s size and shot creation, he should have no problem finding his spots from beyond the arc.
<h3 data-start="1500" data-end="1523">Why This Bet?</h3>
Dončić has been logging heavy minutes and has historically dominated the Knicks, making this a great spot for him to clear 3.5 threes. New York’s perimeter defense is a major liability, ranking last in opponent three-point percentage, and will struggle even more if OG Anunoby is out. Given Luka’s high usage and success against this matchup, Over 3.5 threes (-130) is a strong value play to close out the parlay.
<a class="in-cell-link" href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/betting/sportsbook-promos/bet365" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BET365 PROMO CODE – FIRST BET SAFETY NET $1000 IN BONUS BETS</a>
<h2 style="text-align: left;">2-Game, 4-Leg Parlay Payout: +472 Odds</h2>
This four-leg parlay provides a balanced mix of team-based and player props, capitalizing on trends, injuries, and matchup advantages. With a +472 payout, this play offers excellent value while maintaining a strong foundation in recent form and statistical analysis. Here’s the final parlay:
✅ Boston Celtics Alternate Spread -8.5 (-220)
✅ Jayson Tatum 25+ Points (-186)
✅ Los Angeles Lakers Alternate Spread +3.5 (-225)
✅ Luka Dončić Over 3.5 Threes (-130)
Lock in this parlay, and let’s aim for another big night of cashing tickets!
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This 4-leg NBA parlay combines team and player props, leveraging trends, injuries, and matchups for a well-researched +472 payout. Don't miss this breakdown!

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