Grant White

NCAA Sweet 16 Preview: Key Matchups and Predictions

The top seeds in last night&#8217;s action had no problems punching their tickets to the Elite Eight. Now, it&#8217;s the Houston Cougars&#8216; turn to prove they were worthy of the one-seed in the Midwest. Standing in their way is a resilient Purdue Boilermakers side that easily cruised into the <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/ncaab/march-madness-bracketology">Sweet Sixteen</a>. 
Still, Purdue hasn&#8217;t been tested in quite some time, getting one of the easiest paths to the third round. Better teams have fallen into Houston&#8217;s defensive traps, and we don&#8217;t think the Boilermakers can muster the gumption to break through, either.
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<h2><a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cbb/game/purdue-boilermakers-houston-cougars-scores-odds-picks-props-march-28-2025/d1bf7dfc-49bb-4f4f-9edf-fec338033e79">Purdue vs Houston</a></h2>
<ul>
<li>Arena: Lucas Oil Stadium</li>
<li>Location: Indianapolis, IN</li>
<li>Date: Friday, March 28</li>
<li>Where to Watch: TBS/truTV</li>
<li>Time: 10:09 p.m. ET</li>
<li>Spread: Houston -8.5 | Total: 133</li>
<li>Moneyline: Houston -425 | Purdue +325</li>
</ul>
Please be aware that betting odds may change after the publication of this article.
<h2>Purdue vs Houston Best Bet: Houston -8.5</h2>
Purdue reached the Sweet Sixteen unscathed. They easily won and covered the spread in both opening-round matchups, but faced a No. 13 and No. 12 to advance. When tested versus superior competition, the Boilermakers have cracked. They were handed a decisive loss in the Big Ten Tournament, losing 86-68 to the eventual champion Michigan Wolverines. Likewise, they suffered losses to Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan State over the final few weeks of the regular season, with all those losses coming by at least eight points. The common thread through those defeats is ineffective offensive play. If Purdue couldn&#8217;t get to the basket against those opponents, we don&#8217;t like their chances of poking holes in the Cougars&#8217; suffocating defense. Advantage, Houston.
<h2>Purdue vs Houston Best Total Bet: Under 133</h2>
Neither the Cougars nor the Boilermakers push the pace offensively. Purdue ranks 283rd in shot attempts per game, with the Cougars checking in at a distant 360th. Not surprisingly, that has resulted in reliable &#8216;under&#8217; trends for both teams heading into this Midwest Region semifinal. The Boilermakers have stayed under the total in three of their past four. Similarly, Houston has remained beneath the posted total in five of seven, and eight of 15 throughout their winning streak. But take note of this more recent trend. Purdue has gone under the total in three of the last five games in which they&#8217;ve failed to cover. If Houston&#8217;s defense prevails as expected, we should see this one come in under 133 points.
Shoot your shot! Cash in with our four- and five-star <a class="in-cell-link" href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cbb/picks" target="_blank" rel="noopener">College Basketball Picks</a> and buzzer-beating <a class="in-cell-link" href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cbb/player-props" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Player Props</a>.
<h2>Purdue Best Player Bet: Fletcher Loyer Over 1.5 Assists -115</h2>
The Boilermakers&#8217; chances lie in maximizing production from their three-headed monster of <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cbb/players/trey-kaufman-renn/4985">Trey Kaufman-Renn</a>, <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cbb/players/braden-smith/4978">Braden Smith</a>, and <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cbb/players/fletcher-loyer/4974">Fletcher Loyer</a>. Loyer&#8217;s scoring production has been lacking recently, but he&#8217;s made up for it with a more generous approach. The junior has ten assists over his last three games, recording multiple dimes in each one of those contests. Moreover, he&#8217;s been deployed more frequently, notching at least 34 minutes in three of his last four. While we&#8217;re not anticipating a scoring surge versus Houston, Loyer can find other ways to contribute. We&#8217;re betting the Boilermakers guard eclipses 1.5 assists in Indianapolis.
<h2>Houston Best Player Bet: J&#8217;Wan Roberts Over 5.5 Rebounds -130</h2>
The Cougars deploy one of the most balanced attacks in the country. Four of their starters average more than 10.0 points per game, and eight different players exceed 5.0. However, when rebounding, <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cbb/players/jwan-roberts/5568">J&#8217;Wan Roberts</a> towers above the rest. The Cougars forward averages a more modest 6.3 rebounds per game, more than double any other starter. Moreover, Roberts has maintained that pace down the stretch. He&#8217;s surpassed 5.5 rebounds in five of his last eight, averaging 6.0 rebounds per game across that sample. Purdue is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country, allowing Roberts to go over his total on Friday.
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The Houston Cougars are looking to punch their tickets into the Elite Eight, but they'll have to get past the Purdue Boilermakers to do so. Can the Cougars win?

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