TJ Inman

Exploring the New Dynamics of College Football Playoffs

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The Oregon Ducks survived a strong challenge from the Wisconsin Badgers and improved to 11-0 in the regular season. After the win in Madison, the Ducks are 8-0 in the Big Ten. It was closer than expected, but that could be partly due to the Ducks playing for eight straight weeks without a break. They now get a bye week to rest before closing the regular season against the Washington Huskies. Oregon gets the nod as the Big Ten Champion and would be in the Rose Bowl for a quarterfinal matchup.
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Rose Bowl - 1. Oregon Ducks - Big Ten Champion vs. 8/9 Winner

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The Texas Longhorns are the projected SEC Champion after they knocked off the Arkansas Razorbacks and remain atop the standings with just one loss. The Longhorns close the regular season with contests against Kentucky and a blood feud at Texas A&amp;M. If Texas wins out, they will be in Atlanta to compete for the SEC Championship. A loss at Texas A&amp;M could leave as many as seven teams with two losses in the league. Texas has the best defense statistically in the conference, and the offense has several capable weapons.
Week 13: Kentucky at Texas (-20.5)

Sugar Bowl - 2. Texas Longhorns - SEC Champion vs. 7/10 Winner

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The Miami Hurricanes had a bye week after losing to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. As of now, the Hurricanes edge out Clemson for a spot in the ACC Championship Game, with the Tigers’ loss to Louisville giving Miami the tiebreaker. Miami closes with Wake Forest and at Syracuse. If Miami wins both of those games, they will take on SMU for the ACC Championship and a spot in the College Football Playoff with a bye to the quarterfinal.
Week 13: Wake Forest at Miami (-23.5)

Peach Bowl - 3. Miami Hurricanes - ACC Champion vs. 6/11 Winner

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The Colorado Buffaloes have emerged as the best team in the Big 12. BYU’s loss to Kansas probably gives the Buffaloes a bit more mention in brackets, but we’ve had Colorado in this spot for a couple of weeks. They dispatched Utah to maintain a path to the Big 12 Championship Game. Colorado now closes with the Kansas Jayhawks and then the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
Week 13: Colorado (-2.5) at Kansas

Fiesta Bowl - 4. Colorado - Big 12 Champion vs. 5/12 Winner

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Tulane might be the best Group of Five team right now, but the Boise State Broncos keep on winning, and if they finish the season 11-1 and then win the Mountain West Championship Game, they will get the selection into the College Football Playoff. This projection has the Broncos as the 12-seed and playing at Ohio State in the first round with a trip to the Fiesta Bowl to play Colorado on the line. Ohio State would finish 11-1 with wins over Indiana and Michigan to close the regular season, and then a close loss to Oregon would leave them as the 5-seed in this projection. How the committee would treat Ohio State if they lost at home to Indiana this Saturday would be fascinating.
Week 13: Indiana at Ohio State (-10.5)

12. Boise State Broncos at 5. Ohio State Buckeyes

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The Indiana Hoosiers had a well-earned bye week and will enter the weekend 10-0. The Hoosiers are at Ohio State in what could reasonably be described as the program’s biggest game since at least 1967. If Indiana is competitive at Ohio State and then blows out Purdue to wrap the regular season at 11-1, the Hoosiers would feel great about their chances to improbably make the College Football Playoff. Given how much they have dominated opponents all season, they could make an argument to host a first-round game. Still, this projection guesses the committee favors SEC squads and Penn State over IU and squeaks the Hoosiers into the field. They would play at Georgia. The Bulldogs need to win the final two games of the regular season to finish at 10-2. Still, they have the season’s best win with a dominant performance at Texas and a win over Tennessee with what has turned into the nation’s most demanding schedule.
Week 13: UMass at Georgia (-44.5)

11. Indiana Hoosiers at 6. Georgia Bulldogs

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The Ole Miss Rebels are projected as the ten-seed, finishing the regular season at 10-2. The Rebels have a disappointing loss to LSU, plus a dreadful loss at home to Kentucky. Still, they also have a dominant win over Georgia and a blowout win over South Carolina that continues to age well. Ole Miss has no path to the SEC Championship Game, but they have probably done enough to get into the playoffs and could win a game or two. They would be playing at Penn State in a rematch of last season’s Peach Bowl. The Nittany Lions dominated the dreadful Purdue Boilermakers and now need to close the season with wins over Minnesota and Maryland to make the field comfortably.
Week 13: Penn State (-13.5) at Minnesota

10. Ole Miss Rebels at 7. Penn State Nittany Lions

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How will the playoff committee treat Notre Dame? The Fighting Irish have the worst loss of anyone in consideration for the 12-team field, but they have dominant wins the rest of the way. Their problem is that none of those wins are over outstanding teams. The victory over Georgia Tech looks good, with the Yellow Jackets beating Miami, but Louisville got beat by Stanford, and Navy got torched by Tulane. This projection has the Fighting Irish making the field but not getting a home game. They would be the nine-seed and play at Alabama. The Crimson Tide are projected to finish 10-3 with a third loss coming in the SEC Championship Game against Texas. The committee has said they would not punish teams that lose in league title games, and the Crimson Tide have a demanding schedule with wins over Georgia and South Carolina and remaining games against Oklahoma and Auburn. They’ll feel great about making the field if Alabama can win both games.
Week 13: Alabama (-13.5) at Oklahoma
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9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 8. Alabama Crimson Tide

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The 2024 college football season is in full tilt. The 12-team college football playoff adds new wrinkles; what do we project the playoff bracket to be?

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12-Team College Football Playoff Bracket Based on ESPN FPI Rankings

12-Team College Football Playoff Based on ESPN's Playoff Predictor

12-Team College Football Playoff Bracket Based on Coaches Poll

12-Team College Football Playoff Bracket Based on AP Poll

Predicting Every Conference Winner in College Football

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AP Poll Update: Georgia Moves Back Into the Top 10, 14 Teams Rise

Coaches Poll Update: Tennessee & BYU Drop Out of Top 10, 7 Teams Fall

Coaches Poll Update: Penn State & Indiana Round Out Top 5, 16 Teams Rise

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