Danny Mogollon

NCAAF Best Bets: College Football Week 1 Predictions

It’s Week 1 of B1G Bets with three B1G BETS on team totals and two sides for our B1GGER BETS to kick off the 2024 <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/ncaaf/big-ten-football">Big Ten Football season</a>.
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<h2>B1GGEST BET</h2>
None.
<h2>B1GGER BETS</h2>
<h2>NORTHWESTERN -3 Miami (OH) @BetMGM</h2>
I expect Northwestern to take a step back (record-wise) this season, but I don’t dislike this team. Their defense is excellent and especially tough to run on. They return 14 of 19 players who played 240+ snaps last season, including their best player, LB <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/xander-mueller/36089">Xander Mueller</a>, top pass rusher <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/aidan-hubbard/36141">Aidan Hubbard</a>, top cover corner <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/theran-johnson/36090">Theran Johnson</a>, and captain sixth-year safety <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/coco-azema/36146">Coco Azema</a>. Of those 14 players, eight were freshmen or sophomores, who should be better for their experience a year ago.
David Braun can coach, and his Cats will handle business at home in the football debut of their <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/bigten/2024/08/29/northwestern-football-lakeside-stadium-capacity-plans/74967596007/">on-campus lakeside stadium</a>. They were 5-2 at home last season with losses coming to Penn State (tied 10-10 at halftime) and 10-7 to 10-win Iowa. The Big Ten schedule will catch up to Northwestern this season, but on Saturday, they will be the better team with a far superior defense. Braun &amp; Company has earned our trust.
<h2>(SUN) USC +5 LSU @BetRivers</h2>
As you may already know, <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/ncaaf/article/usc-trojans-preview-expert-predictions-best-bets">I like this USC team</a>. My biggest concern for them this season is the need for more depth along both lines of scrimmage. With a challenging schedule, that could be an issue later in the season, but certainly not in Week 1.
These are very similar teams that are replacing Heisman-winning quarterbacks and had unfathomably bad defenses for their program pedigrees. Quarterbacks <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/miller-moss/36450">Miller Moss</a> and <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/garrett-nussmeier/51357">Garrett Nussmeier</a> have shown flashes of what they can be and still have much to prove. Both offenses should be fine.
Which defense do I trust? Neither, but I’m more optimistic about USC’s. They made more significant additions via the portal and might have a decent secondary this season, better than LSU’s. More importantly, I love their coaching additions of former UCLA defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn and assistant head coach for defense/linebackers coach Matt Entz, who comes over after five years as the head coach at North Dakota State, where he won two FCS National Championships. This defense will be coached up.
This matchup is closer to even than the spread indicates…I’ll happily gobble up the five points.
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<h2>B1G BETS</h2>
<h2>(FRI) Florida Atlantic UNDER 15.5 @FanDuel (-111)</h2>
FAU’s offense was terrible last season and could be even worse in 2024. They’re 121st in returning production, and most of their better players are on the defensive side of the ball. Marshall transfer <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/cam-fancher/44267">Cam Fancher</a> ranked 96th in QBR, the offensive line returns one starter, no running back had as many as 120 yards, and no one reached 500 yards receiving.
Sparty has quality depth at linebacker and what should be an improved secondary. Against some opponents, I might worry about their front getting pushed around. The Owls aren’t one of those opponents. With leans towards Michigan State (-12.5) and the UNDER (45.5), I’m opting to go with FAU UNDER 15.5 with a forecast that calls for potentially heavy rain tonight.
<h2>(FRI) Western Michigan UNDER 16.5 @FanDuel (-120)</h2>
Not sure what to expect from QB <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/tyler-van-dyke/33973">Tyler Van Dyke</a>, but the Wisconsin defense was strong last season and should be even better in 2024. Elite coverman <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/ricardo-hallman/34029">Ricardo Hallman</a> and versatile safety <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/hunter-wohler/34005">Hunter Wohler</a> headline a solid secondary. At the same time, transfers <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/jaheim-thomas/34034">Jaheim Thomas</a> (Arkansas) on the inside and <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/john-pius/33996">John Pius</a> (William &amp; Mary) and <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/leon-lowery/34054">Leon Lowery</a> (Syracuse) coming off the edge bolster what was already a solid linebacking corps. They will hold down a poor Western Michigan attack that failed to score more than ten points in four of 12 games on their way to a 4-8 season a year ago.  
<h2>Connecticut UNDER 13.5 @FanDuel (-128)</h2>
Like MSU, my slight leans are towards Maryland (-19.5) and UNDER 44.5. Factoring my preference for a Brian Williams-led defense over a rebuilding Terps offense sans Taulia Tagovailoa, I’m backing Maryland to shut down the Huskies as Mike Locksley leans on their defense and running game more than in previous seasons. UConn played four top-50 defenses in 2023 and scored a combined 30 points (7.5 PPG), failing to put up more than seven points three times. Maryland’s D might be better than any the Huskies faced last season.
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It’s Week 1 of the college football season with three B1G BETS on team totals and two sides for our B1GGER BETS to kick off the 2024 Big Ten Football season.

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