College Football Week 12 Predictions | Saturday Picks Today, Best Bets
Grant White
Host · Writer
The stakes in college football have never been higher. With three weeks left in the regular season, virtually every conference is still up for grabs. As we know, Power Four conference champs are awarded an automatic playoff berth, but eight other spots are still in play. That means the intensity only gets ratcheted higher as we speed toward an exciting conclusion of the 2024 season.
Tulane Green Wave vs Navy Midshipmen
Spread: Tulane -6.5 (-124) | Navy +6.5 (+102)
Moneyline: Tulane -250 | Navy +202
Total: OVER 52.5 (-105) | UNDER 52.5 (-115)
All the Group of Five love has been showered on the Boise State Broncos and Army Black Knights. Quietly, the Tulane Green Wave have gone on a seven-game winning streak, cracking the Top 25 in the latest rankings. They put that streak on the line against a Navy Midshipmen side that still has much to prove.
Tulane’s winning streak is impressive, but some of the shine wears off when we adjust for strength of opponent. Five of the seven teams they’ve faced sit below .500, and only one has more than five wins this season. Consequently, their team metrics are inflated, making the Green Wave look more imposing than they are.
Everyone knows what to expect from Navy — an excessive amount of running. Still, no one can stop them. The Midshipmen are averaging 258.6 rushing yards per game, the fourth-most in the FBS, translating that to 34.0 points per game. That’s helped Navy to a 7-2 record, including 6-3 against the spread. More impressively, the Midshipmen are 3-1 against the spread at home this season and have covered the number as home underdogs in three straight games (dating back to last season).
This will be Tulane’s first real test since September. The Green Wave are getting too much credit for beating up on inferior teams, inflating this line beyond where it should be. We’re taking the points with the home underdog Midshipmen.
Recommended Play: Navy +6.5 +102
2024 Group of 5 Power Rankings | Week 12 of College Football Season
Syracuse Orange vs California Golden Bears
Spread: Syracuse +8.5 (-105) | Cal -8.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Syracuse +265 | Cal -335
Total: OVER 57.5 (-110) | UNDER 57.5 (-110)
Defense could be in short supply when the Syracuse Orange travel west for a date with the California Golden Bears. Both teams have flexed their offensive muscles this season, and neither has looked exceptional on the defensive side of the ball. Consequently, we’re predicting this ACC matchup goes north of the total.
Recently, Cal has leveled up its offensive intensity. The Golden Bears scored 46 points last time out, bringing their two-game total to 90 points. Most importantly, that output is validated by elite production metrics. Cal has totaled 978 yards across those outings, most of its production coming from its passing game.
Syracuse is on a similar upward trajectory with its recent offensive performances. After putting up 38 on the Virginia Tech Hokies in Week 10, the Orange followed that up with another 31-point effort against the Boston College Eagles last time out. As usual, Syracuse has relied on Kyle McCord to get the team downfield. The senior quarterback has thrown for 672 yards across those outings and hasn’t thrown for fewer than 280 yards in any game this season.
Both teams feature dangerous offensive attacks; however, neither possesses a defense that can limit their opponent. As a result, we’re betting this one sails over the modest total.
Recommended Play: Over 57.5 -110
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LSU Tigers vs Florida Gators
Spread: LSU -3.5 (-115) | Florida +3.5 (-105)
Moneyline: LSU -170 | Florida +140
Total: OVER 55.5 (-115) | UNDER 55.5 (-105)
Last week, the LSU Tigers were humbled by the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Tigers dropped a decisive 42-13 to their hated rivals, dropping them out of contention in the SEC. Motivation may be thin as they try to escape The Swamp with a crucial victory over the Florida Gators.
LSU has looked out of sorts in dropping two straight conference games. While its offense has fallen short of expectations, the Tigers’ defense has been a limiting factor. They’ve given up nearly 800 yards across those outings, with 553 of those coming on the ground. That plays into the strength of the Gators’ reinvigorated rushing attack.
Florida has turned to its ground game as it looks to climb back to .500 and remain bowl-eligible. The Gators accumulated 197 rushing yards in last week’s loss to the Texas Longhorns, bringing their three-game average to 169.7. Jadan Baugh and Ja’Kobi Jackson have shared in that glory, with both running backs cracking the century mark once across the three-game sample.
Stopping the rushing attack puts the Tigers out of their element, and that concern is amplified when we consider the dynamic nature of the Gators’ backfield. This game is a virtual must-win if Florida hopes to stay in the bowl game hunt. We like them to cover, but more reckless bettors might be tempted to back them on the moneyline.
Recommended Play: Florida +3.5 -105
UAB Blazers vs Memphis Tigers
Spread: UAB +14.5 (-110) | Memphis -14.5 (-110)
Moneyline: UAB +480 | Memphis -690
Total: OVER 62.5 (-106) | UNDER 62.5 (-114)
While some programs have their sights set on bowl games or a potential playoff berth, others are just trying to limp to the end of the season. The UAB Blazers find themselves in the latter category, but the Memphis Tigers are one of the few Group of 5 teams with a shot at the College Football Playoff. Those waves collide in what we’re forecasting to be a very one-sided matchup.
The -14.5 spread doesn’t do the Tigers justice. Memphis has been one of the top offensive teams in the country this season, averaging the 21st-most yards per game against FBS foes. Naturally, they have the output to match, with their 32.8 points per game representing the 26th-highest average in the FBS.
UAB won’t be able to keep pace with the Tigers. Outside of a 59-point outburst against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane, the Blazers have been held in check in virtually every contest. They average just 23.5 points and 380.1 yards per game, ranking at the bottom in both categories. Moreover, their metrics take a serious hit on the road, with their yardage total dropping 60 yards compared to how they perform at home.
Memphis has an advantage in every facet of the game. We expect the Tigers to put their best foot forward over the season’s final few weeks, doing their best to impress the CFP Committee. Marching to victory over the Blazers appears to be nothing more than a formality.
Recommended Play: Memphis -14.5 -110
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