Danny Mogollon

College Football Week 11 Preview: Key Matchups and Best Bets

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Spread: <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/game/iowa-hawkeyes-ucla-bruins-scores-odds-picks-props-november-08-2024/ce5598ef-be74-4cb6-8b59-5ab79b23ab61">Iowa -6 | Total: 45.5</a> (all lines are from BetMGM)
Both teams are playing their best football heading down the stretch of the season. The Hawkeyes have scored 40-plus points in three of their past four games, which is more 40-point games than they’ve had in the previous three seasons. Let that sink in for a second.
This is a different Iowa team. They used to be just for us sicko defense/special teams aficionados. With an offense that is effective and an exciting star runner, all college football fans can enjoy Kirk Ferentz’s team. A big back with home-run speed, <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/kaleb-johnson/39554">Kaleb Johnson</a> (1,279 yards) has scored 19 touchdowns and averages 7.5 yards per carry.
UCLA lost five straight games after barely beating Hawai’i (16-13) in their opener. The first four losses all came by at least 16 points (and all to teams currently ranked in the CFP Top 15). Their fifth defeat was a near win over Minnesota, followed by consecutive W’s over Rutgers and Nebraska. Great job by the much-maligned DeShaun Foster to keep the team positive when most of us assumed the Bruins had given up on the season.
<a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/ethan-garbers/24100">Ethan Garbers</a> comes into this one hot! The California native has thrown for 602 yards (67.1%, 8.25 YPA) with six TD passes and no INTs in the past two games. Can he keep it up against the Hawkeyes?
Score: Iowa 24, UCLA 13
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9:00 p.m. ET (FRI) | Iowa (6-3, 4-2) @ UCLA (3-5, 2-4) | FOX

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Spread: <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/game/purdue-boilermakers-ohio-state-buckeyes-scores-odds-picks-props-november-09-2024/8c5e5882-5285-4f59-8427-f47242aa3246">Ohio State -37.5 (-115) | Total: 53.5</a>
Ohio State is coming off its biggest win of the season over No. 3 Penn State, its third straight one-score game. OSU must be due for a letdown.
Purdue has forced two of its past three opponents to overtime and might be playing its best football of the season.
Spoilermakers, anyone?
Juuuuuuust kidding.
If you’re into bloodbaths, this is the game for you. Ohio State can name their score.
Score: Ohio State 41, Purdue 0

Noon ET | Purdue (1-7, 0-5) @ No. 2 Ohio State (7-1, 4-1) | FOX

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Spread: <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/game/minnesota-golden-gophers-rutgers-scarlet-knights-scores-odds-picks-props-november-09-2024/77c20c2d-8d9d-40f2-9e96-f88591c20095">Minnesota -6.5 (-105) | Total: 46.5</a>
Besides the undefeated teams, No. 1 Oregon and No. 8 Indiana, no one in the B1G is hotter than Minnesota, which has won four straight, including its past two on the road.
In their four wins, <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/max-brosmer/32174">Max Brosmer</a> has completed 70.7 percent of his passes with seven TD passes to no INTs (6:4 TD:INT ratio prior). RB <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/darius-taylor/32171">Darius Taylor</a> has rushed for over 80 yards in three of those four games, including 131 yards (6.0 YPC) last week at Illinois.
Besides the lone winless team in Big Ten play, Purdue, no one in the B1G is colder than Rutgers, which has lost four straight, including its past two at home.
The Rutgers side of things is a bit juicier. Sure, <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/athan-kaliakmanis/40204">Athan Kaliakmanis</a> is completing just 54.1 percent of his passes (on the season) with two touchdown passes to four interceptions during their losing streak. (I didn’t say better.) But that ignores the plot twist that Minnesota’s PJ Fleck pushed Kaliakmanis out the door to bring Brosmer via the portal to replace him. Kirk Ciarrocca, who left Fleck’s staff to reunite with Greg Schiano before last season, calls the plays for the Scarlet Knights. Fleck and Ciarrocca worked for Schiano during RU’s time in the Big East.
What does that mean for Saturday? Who knows, but it certainly adds some intrigue to the matchup.
Score: Minnesota 27, Rutgers 17

Noon ET | Minnesota (6-3, 4-2) @ Rutgers (4-4, 1-4) | NBC

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Spread: <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/game/michigan-wolverines-indiana-hoosiers-scores-odds-picks-props-november-09-2024/62ebde65-e4e9-4a80-874e-c5eea4da5e58">Indiana -14.5 (-105) | Total: 49.5</a>
No team has exceeded expectations more than the Indiana Hoosiers this season. They are now favored to make the CFP (-200 on BetMGM). This team does everything well. Everything. And they have good players. Very good players.
Please do yourself a favor and check them out. RB <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/justice-ellison/50601">Justice Ellison</a> (669 yards, 6.0 YPC, 9 TDs) is a terror in the open field. Wideouts <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/elijah-sarratt/50580">Elijah Sarratt</a> (17.5 YPC, 5 TDs) and <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/omar-cooper/50589">Omar Cooper Jr.</a> (22.6 YPC, 4 TDs) are big-play threats. EDGE <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/mikail-kamara/42281">Mikail Kamara</a> (9.5 sacks), S <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/amare-ferrell/50658">Amare Ferrell</a> (4 INTs), and CB <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/dangelo-ponds/42344">D’Angelo Ponds</a> (5 BUs) are ballers.
Michigan has more talent than any team Indiana has faced. That’s a fact. They have flashed the ability to run the football. <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/kalel-mullings/45376">Kalel Mullings</a> (710 yards, 5.4 YPC, 7 TDs) is having a good season, and <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/donovan-edwards/45371">Donovan Edwards</a> has played better of late (5.2 YPC in the past four games). TE <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/colston-loveland/45242">Colston Loveland</a> has been a more significant part of the offense when <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/davis-warren/45270">Davis Warren</a> plays a complete game: 29 receptions, 336 yards, three TDs in four games.
All of that is true. Does anyone believe the Wolverines will be the team to slow down the IU wagon in Bloomington?
Score: Indiana 31, Michigan 13

3:30 p.m. ET | Michigan (5-4, 3-3) @ No. 8 Indiana (9-0, 6-0) | CBS

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Spread: <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/game/maryland-terrapins-oregon-ducks-scores-odds-picks-props-november-09-2024/0d43313c-4adb-43b0-ad2d-54950885c58b">Oregon -25.5 | Total: 57.5</a>
Another mismatch. Not as much as Ohio State-Purdue, but there’s no reason to expect this one to be close.
Maryland’s only chance to be competitive is for the offense to play their best football. <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/billy-edwards/47730">Billy Edwards</a> has topped 250 yards in seven of eight games, with three 300-yard games and multiple TD passes in six, including three TDs at Indiana, the best defense they’ve faced. Six Terps have 15-plus receptions, led by Tai Felton (73 receptions, 907 yards, 6 TDs).
But how do the Terps slow Oregon down? Maryland “held” Indiana to 42 points (IU averages 43.2 PPG in B1G games) and USC to 28 (28.6 PPG) but allowed 37 to Northwestern (18.2 PPG) and 48 to Minnesota (26 PPG). They’ve allowed 90 points in two Big Ten road games.
The Ducks average 34.7 PPG, so 35 points is a minimum, and 40+ is likely. <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/dillon-gabriel/29382">Dillon Gabriel</a> runs the offense like an elite point guard, and even without leading receiver <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/tez-johnson/29387">Tez Johnson</a>, he has four weapons that average 13.5 YPC or better. Expect Gabriel to shred a Maryland pass defense ranked 127th in the country.  
Score: Oregon 45, Maryland 20

7:00 p.m. ET | Maryland (4-4, 1-4) @ Oregon (9-0, 6-0) | BTN

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Spread: <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/game/washington-huskies-penn-state-nittany-lions-scores-odds-picks-props-november-09-2024/81707f50-45b7-4556-a948-c2ad3e5b30bf">Penn State -13.5 (-105) | Total: 46.5</a>
Washington is coming off a big win over old Pac-12 rival USC. They’ve already faced in-state rival Washington State and “avenged” their National Championship loss to Michigan, with games against two more former Pac-12 opponents (UCLA and Oregon) to close the season. As big of a win as beating Penn State would be, I’m not sure how up the Huskies will be for this one.
Plus, they haven’t been the same team away from home. Washington is perfect in Husky Stadium, 5-0 (3-0 in Big Ten games). However, away from the friendly confines, they are 0-4, including B1G losses to Rutgers (before RU’s four-game losing streak), Iowa by 24, and Indiana by 14 with their backup quarterback.
Outside of the COVID year, the Nittany Lions have won four straight the week after losing to Ohio State, three by at least 17 points. As tough as it might be for Penn State to take last week’s result against Ohio State, they have something to play for more than ever. The Nittany Lions know that if they win out, they’re playoff-bound and have a good chance of hosting a CFP game in Happy Valley.
Score: Penn State 33, Washington 13
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8:00 p.m. ET | Washington (5-4, 3-3) @ Penn State (7-1, 4-1) | Peacock

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It's Week 11 in college football, and 12 Big Ten teams take the field, starting with Iowa at UCLA on Saturday night. We preview and predict all six B1G games.

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