David Connelly

NFL MVP Favorites and Odds Analysis 2024: Who Leads?

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It's undisputed that <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/players/christian-mccaffrey/2662">Christian McCaffrey</a> remains the top fantasy option at the running back position in the league. Even if his workload is ticked back a bit, <a href="https://x.com/CoachspeakIndex/status/1798084461319582089">as head coach Kyle Shanahan has suggested throughout the offseason</a>, his impact with every touch on such a high-powered offense that provides so many scoring opportunities helps him remain the best option. If you have the first pick in your draft, keep it simple and grab McCaffrey.

1. Christian McCaffrey - San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 1.3)

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If you are picking in the middle of the first round, selecting <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/players/bijan-robinson/2556">Bijan Robinson</a> can be an optimal choice for a hero running back build. As one of the most skilled backs in the league entering his second season, he will be a part of a much better offense this season with <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/players/kirk-cousins/16341">Kirk Cousins</a> under center. <a href="https://x.com/CoachspeakIndex/status/1800570056306500030">Head coach Raheem Morris </a>said he wants to "get the ball to Bijan as much as he can," so we're excited to get him on our team as early as the fourth pick.

2. Bijan Robinson - Atlanta Falcons (ADP: 3.7)

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<a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/players/breece-hall/1573">Breece Hall</a> possesses that upside that fits the mold of a hero running back that can carry your team into the playoffs. Now two years removed from an ACL tear during his rookie campaign, the 23-year-old is set to be the lead back in an offense that should improve from 2023, with <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/players/aaron-rodgers/1536">Aaron Rodgers</a> fully healthy. Hall has the skillset to rack up 2,000 yards from scrimmage this season, making him a great first-round pick in fantasy football.

3. Breece Hall - New York Jets (ADP: 5.0)

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While <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/players/jonathan-taylor/1846">Jonathan Taylor</a> is now two years removed from his RB1 season, where he dominated the fantasy landscape, he is still well within the age range to produce at a high level at just 25. With a healthy <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/players/anthony-richardson/16185">Anthony Richardson</a> in the backfield, the presence of a dual-threat quarterback could open some holes for him at the line of scrimmage. As a three-down back with virtually zero competition behind him on the roster, Taylor should be in for a big 2024.

4. Jonathan Taylor - Indianapolis Colts (ADP: 10.7)

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Here is where things can start to build a small case against the running backs in this range. <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/players/jahmyr-gibbs/2151">Jahmyr Gibbs</a> has shown plenty of times how special of a talent he is, and there is zero reason not to draft him solely as a prospect. The concern becomes his health and his lack of a workhorse role. Gibbs has already suffered the second hamstring injury of his short NFL career in the preseason, leaving him with a questionable tag. On top of that, it looks like <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/players/david-montgomery/2103">David Montgomery</a> isn't going anywhere soon. A limited backfield role and an increased injury risk make Gibbs a high-risk, high-reward type of pick.

5. Jahmyr Gibbs - Detroit Lions (ADP: 16.2)

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As mentioned in our piece on <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/article/players-to-avoid-drafting-at-each-position-in-fantasy-football-in-2024" target="_blank" rel="noopener">players to avoid drafting this year,</a> <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/players/saquon-barkley/1030">Saquon Barkley</a> is someone to stay away from in fantasy this season. It has less to do with his player profile but more with Philadelphia's goal-line offense. The tush push has become a vulture for running back touchdown equity at the goal line, and we don't expect it to change much in 2024. If Barkley gets a handful of touchdowns taken from him throughout the season, it will severely impact his ability to live up to this expensive ADP.

6. Saquon Barkley - Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: 10.8)

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Since Jerick McKinnon was not re-signed by the Chiefs early in the offseason, it's been nowhere but up for <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/players/isiah-pacheco/1592">Isiah Pacheco's</a> ADP throughout the summer. The seventh-round pick is now in line for a massive workload in 2024, but it may be time to slightly pump the brakes with the arrival of <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/players/samaje-perine/2258">Samaje Perine</a>. Brought in by Kansas City just this past week, he's expected to fill that McKinnon role and eat into some of those valuable pass-catching downs, potentially putting a slight ceiling on Pacheco's outcomes. He's still a solid pick, but we're not sprinting to the window at this price.

7. Isiah Pacheco - Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: 17.6)

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You would think, after averaging the second-most fantasy points among running backs in 2023, that <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/players/kyren-williams/1225">Kyren Williams</a> would be going early in the first round this season. Instead, he is available deep into the second round largely due to the acquisition of rookie <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/players/blake-corum/60185">Blake Corum</a> in the second round of the NFL Draft. Add in that <a href="https://x.com/CoachspeakIndex/status/1828612482136515050">head coach Sean McVay mentioned that Williams is in line to return some punts this season</a>, and there is plenty of noise that is keeping Williams down at this ADP. Don't feel swayed one way or the other on him at this spot in the draft. If he's there and you need a back, he's a great pick. If you left the first round with an elite back, perhaps it's better to go with a receiver at this stage of the draft.

8. Kyren Williams - Los Angeles Rams (ADP: 18.1)

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The biggest concern for <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/players/travis-etienne/2750">Travis Etienne's</a> production this year is the Jaguars' woeful offensive line, and we believe it's a fair one, with the team finishing second-to-last in yards per rushing attempt in 2023. <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/players/tank-bigsby/2722">Tank Bigsby</a> still seems to be a very little threat to take many snaps from Etienne after playing just six snaps with <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/players/trevor-lawrence/2760">Trevor Lawrence</a> throughout the preseason, so the volume will certainly be there this season. It's hard to go wrong with loads of volume in an offense that should have some success, so Etienne feels like a safe pick around the 2/3 turn.

9. Travis Etienne - Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 20.1)

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This is where the second tier of running backs ends based on ADP, but we see a big year in store for <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/players/rachaad-white/1442">Rachaad White</a>. He fits the mold of a true three-down back with the ability to make catches out of the backfield, which always provides loads of upside in PPR leagues. The addition of rookie <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/players/graham-barton/67016">Graham Barton</a> at center should also give him a significant boost in the run game, as Barton has shone in preseason and looks to make an impact right away.

10. Rachaad White - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: 31.7)

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To help you prepare for your upcoming fantasy drafts, we rank the top ten running backs that you should be targeting in fantasy football this upcoming season.

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