David Connelly

Alabama's Offense Excels in Victory Over Vanderbilt

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There is zero question right now that the Tigers are the most deserving team in the country of the top overall seed in March. The lone defeat for Bruce Pearl's squad came inside Cameron Indoor against Duke, another team featured on this list and perhaps the second-best team in the country. The biggest headline to watch is the status of star center <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cbb/players/johni-broome/4663">Johni Broome</a>. The big man injured his ankle against South Carolina on January 11 and has missed the previous two games. With a talented Tennessee team coming to town this weekend, they could quickly lose their grasp on the projected top overall seed.

1. Auburn

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Duke's diaper dandies mirror the dominance of their freshmen-led team, which won it all just ten years ago, led by Jahlil Okafor and Tyus Jones. This time, <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cbb/players/cooper-flagg/69588">Cooper Flagg</a> and <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cbb/players/kon-knueppel/69587">Kon Knueppel</a> are getting it done for the Blue Devils, one of the best high-low duos in the country. Durham is home to the nation's longest-active win streak at 12 games, and there simply may not be anyone in the ACC who can disrupt their momentum. Perhaps next month's rare interconference battle against Illinois could threaten Duke's lengthy success.

2. Duke

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The Crimson Tide is among the most exciting teams college basketball has ever seen. Head coach Nate Oats has fully embraced the run-and-gun mentality of basketball's new era, playing at the fastest pace in the country and operating with the second-best offense nationally per KenPom. Alabama has eclipsed 100 points in four of their previous seven games, including in a stunning road victory against Kentucky last weekend. We saw their high-octane offense take over its region en route to the Final Four last season, so who's to say they can't do the same in 2025? With so many opportunities for quality wins within the SEC, the Tide is a top candidate to claim a top seed in the bracket.

3. Alabama

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T.J. Otzelberger has put together one of the most balanced, experienced rosters in all of college basketball this season. The Cyclones are one of two teams in the entire country, along with Duke, ranked in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom. They have been a model of consistency throughout the season. Iowa State is a blown second-half lead against Auburn at the Maui Invitational away from being a one-loss program and in serious contention for the top overall seed. With how tough the Big 12 always is, there will be plenty of opportunity down the stretch for Iowa State to play their way into that conversation.

4. Iowa State

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As previously mentioned, the Volunteers have a golden opportunity to further solidify themselves as a top seed in the NCAA Tournament and perhaps be a contender for the top overall seed with their road matchup against Auburn this weekend. Rick Barnes's group looked poised to be atop a region in March until an absolute drubbing at the hands of Florida, followed by a road loss to Vanderbilt just 11 days later. They are still tied for the third-most Quad 1 wins in the country with six, so they remain firmly in the conversation as long as they can get back on track.

5. Tennessee

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The Gators have two things going for them: an already strong resumé and plenty of opportunities ahead of them. Anyone in the SEC is going to get nightly chances to boost their team sheets. A lot of that will come over the next eight days, with matchups at Tennessee and Auburn looming. With both teams ahead of them on this list, a win in their respective building could propel them into the top-seed line and pull them closer to either the Volunteers or Tigers.

6. Florida

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The Cougars have tons of what you would look for in a #1 seed. They have the results-based metrics, predictive metrics, and a blemish-free resumé, with two of their three defeats coming in overtime and the third against Auburn. Compared to their elite counterparts, the one shortcoming comes with the Quad 1 wins. Our projected top-seed line of Auburn, Duke, Alabama, and Iowa State each have five or more wins in Quad 1. Houston holds just three wins in that category. They'll have to get through a few upcoming landmines to stay in contention. A loss to cellar dwellers Oklahoma State or Colorado would put a hefty dent in their chances.

7. Houston

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Michigan State is finding ways to win, which metrics suggest were simply unsustainable in the new age of college basketball. The Spartans are ignoring the three-point line and finding their scoring inside the arc and at the charity stripe. It's led them to a 9-0 start in Big Ten play, but a brutal back half of the schedule will certainly test them. From February 15th onward, they face Illinois, Michigan, Maryland, and Iowa on the road, Purdue and Wisconsin at home, and Michigan twice. We'll learn much more about Tom Izzo's squad in the next five weeks.

8. Michigan State

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Marquette's got a quality resumé, but the lack of Quad 1 opportunities within the Big East has stunted their ability to reach true #1 seed contention. With UConn and many others in the league not at the level that most expected in the preseason, the Golden Eagles are simply going to lag behind teams in the SEC and Big Ten in perhaps the most critical column on the team sheet. Nevertheless, Shaka Smart's squad possesses legitimate talent, experience, and leadership that bodes well for a deep NCAA Tournament run.

9. Marquette

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The concern for the Wildcats here is that they are starting to rack up too many losses to justify a spot atop any region in March. With five already in the loss column, they'd have to come close to running the table with plenty of help to get into the conversation by Selection Sunday. The bright side for Big Blue Nation is that all of those losses came in Quad 1, and their metrics are spectacular for a team with that many defeats. Meetings with Tennessee, Alabama, and Auburn still await, so there is plenty of time to improve their seeding.

10. Kentucky

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